The Approach
Fundamental first.
Disciplined throughout.
The short-term strategy follows a structured process grounded in macroeconomic analysis. Decisions are shaped by earnings cycles, sector rotation, monetary policy, and global capital flows. Technical analysis — specifically the Wyckoff methodology — serves a defined, secondary role.
Discipline in process. Patience in execution.
Analytical Split
80% Fundamental.
20% Technical.
Fundamentals determine whether to enter. Wyckoff determines when.
Typical Position Duration
3 – 6
Months per Position
The Process
How a position
is built.
1
Macro Thesis
Top-down fundamental analysis of monetary environment, earnings cycles, sector rotation and global capital flows.
Fundamental — 80%
2
Sector & Instrument Selection
Identification of the sector and instrument that best expresses the macro thesis.
Fundamental — 80%
3
Entry Timing via Wyckoff
Wyckoff analysis identifies optimal entry after fundamental validation.
Technical (Wyckoff) — 20%
4
Position Management
Positions held 3–6 months. Thesis reviewed continuously. Exit if thesis no longer holds.
3 – 6 Month Horizon
5
Capital Redeployment
Returns strengthen the firm's balance sheet and support long-term real asset origination.
Capital Building
Status: Proprietary Capital Only
External access planned from Month 24.
The short-term strategy currently operates exclusively on Kamenica Capital's own book. A minimum 24-month track record is being established before external capital participation is considered.
Track Record Progress
Launch
Month 12
Month 24 — External Access